The long awaited report is now available here. Paragraphs relevant to the agri-food industry are:
CHAPTER 6: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AUSTRALIA
“By mid-century, there would be major declines in agricultural production across much of the country. Irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin would be likely to lose half of its annual output. This would lead to changes in our capacity to export food and a growing reliance on food imports, with associated shifts from export parity to import parity pricing.”
“The adverse health impacts of climate change will be greatest among people on lower incomes, the elderly and the sick.[..] The main health risks in Australia include: • impacts of severe weather events (floods, storms, cyclones, bushfires)• impacts of temperature extremes, including heatwaves • vector-borne infectious diseases (for example, dengue virus and Ross River virus) • food-borne infectious diseases (including those due to Salmonella and Campylobacter) • water-borne infectious diseases and health risks from poor water quality • diminished food production and higher prices, with nutritional consequences • increases in air pollution (for example, from bushfire smoke) • changes in production of aeroallergens (spores, pollens), potentially exacerbating asthma and other allergic respiratory diseases • mental health consequences and the emotional cost of social, economic and demographic dislocation (for example, in parts of rural Australia, and through disruptions to traditional ways of living in remote Indigenous communities).”
“Weather extremes and large fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures have the capacity to refashion Asia’s productive landscape and exacerbate food, water and energy scarcities in Asia and the south-west Pacific. Australia’s immediate neighbours are vulnerable developing countries with limited capacity to adapt to climate change.”
“Climate change is likely to affect food production in the Asia–Pacific region for five main reasons: • Increased temperatures could reduce crop yields by shortening growing seasons and accelerating grain sterility in crops. • Marine ecosystems could experience major migratory changes in fish stocks and mortality events in response to rising temperatures. Fish is the primary source of protein for more than one billion people in Asia. • Shifts in rainfall patterns could disrupt flows in rivers used for irrigation, accelerate erosion and desertification and reduce crop and livestock yields. • Rising sea levels could inundate and make unusable fertile coastal land. • An increase in the intensity or frequency of severe weather events could disrupt agriculture.”
” The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (2002) has predicted that food production in Asia will decrease by as much as 20 % due to climate change. These forecasts are in line with IPCC projections showing significant reductions in crop yield (5–30 % compared with 1990) affecting more than one billion people in Asia by 2050″.
“Poorer countries with predominantly rural economies and low levels of agricultural diversification will be at most risk. They have little flexibility to buffer shifts in food production. Higher worldwide food prices associated with climate change, its mitigation and other factors will diminish the opportunity to seek food security from international trade—compounding biophysical constraints on production and negatively affecting both rural and urban poor”.
“In these circumstances, in the absence of international food trade liberalisation, it is likely that price volatility on world markets will increase, especially at times of pressure on global food supplies. Freer and more deeply integrated international markets for agricultural products would be a helpful adaptive response.”
CHAPTER 7: AUSTRALIA’S EMISSIONS IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT
CHAPTER 14: AN AUSTRALIAN EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME
“Australia’s emissions can be classified as coming from the following sectors: stationary energy; transport; fugitive emissions from fuel production; industrial processes; waste; agriculture; and land use, land-use change and forestry.”
“Emissions from stationary energy, transport,5 industrial processes and fugitive emissions from fuel production can be accurately measured or estimated at reasonable cost and should be covered by an Australian emissions trading scheme commencing in 2010.”
“Inclusion of forestry, agriculture and land management on the earliest possible timetable is also desirable. The treatment of these sectors is of large consequence for the Australian and global mitigation efforts.”
CHAPTER 15: ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION MEASURES FOR AUSTRALIA
“Some particular domestic and international markets will be especially important to Australia’s adaptation response, and potentially to our capacity to smoothly adjust to the effects of a carbon price. These markets may require increased policy attention. Included in this category are markets for insurance, water and food.”
Food markets
“The global agricultural sector will be adversely affected by climate change in the absence of effective mitigation. It is likely that the levels and volatility of prices on world markets will increase. The recent global food price crisis provides an indication of how things could develop. In future, it is likely that international food markets will face multiple supply shocks with resulting impacts not unlike those recently witnessed.”
“If Australia becomes increasingly dependent on food imports, as projected under a best-estimate no-mitigation case, rising global food prices and price volatility could become increasingly important issues for consumers.”
“Traditionally, trade tariffs, subsidies and quarantine restrictions have been the primary obstacles to efficiently functioning food markets. With food prices soaring and in the face of mounting political pressure, recent policy changes by major foodexporting countries have increased barriers to trade. The most notable of these have been increased export restrictions (or similar restrictions) and domestic price controls. Export restrictions [..] increased international food prices sharply. Domestic price controls [..] reduce the incentive for producers to increase supply, thereby exacerbating shortages and pushing global prices even higher. Price controls may yield short-run political benefits, in countries imposing them, but not in the rest of the world. In the longer term, these benefits are likely to be outweighed by the damaging effects on economic efficiency:.
“It is in Australia’s long-term interest to pursue the liberalisation of international food markets by removing the distortionary policies of the world’s future food importers and suppliers.Australia would benefit from broader and more open and reliable global food markets as an exporter. It would benefit as a neighbour of developing countries that are from time to time reliant on supplies from international markets. And it would benefit in food security if, as it may, climate change makes Australia a large importer of food.”
“It is also in our long-term interest to ensure that barriers to import such as unnecessarily restrictive quarantine measures do not unnecessarily prevent goods from overseas entering our domestic markets. The banana market in the aftermath of Cyclone Larry in North Queensland in March 2006 illustrates how restrictions on trade can lead to extreme price fluctuations in response to supply checks.[..] Australia needs to be sure that the restrictions are justified—especially in circumstances in which supply shocks are likely to be more important.”
“By 2100 under a best-estimate no-mitigation case, the economic production of irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin is projected to fall by 92 %; under the hot, dry extreme case, production falls by 97 %. Under such outcomes [...]the only viable adaptation response might be to abandon established patterns of agriculture.”
CHAPTER 17: INFORMATION BARRIERS TO KNOWN TECHNOLOGIES
“Mandatory disclosure should be applied to goods where it is cost effective to do so. This will be determined largely by the administrative cost of the scheme, its accuracy and the potential savings to consumers. The potential for accurately and cheaply rating energy use will vary between goods. For refrigerators, it is relatively cheap to assess their energy use—most households’ patterns of using a refrigerator will have limited effect on the comparative efficiency of different models.For vehicles, the situation is more complex, as a driver’s behaviour may influence the efficiency of some cars relative to others, but even partially accurate ratings are likely to be valuable.”
“Governments should continue to implement the energy label program for appliances where energy consumption is substantial and there is significant variation in performance. These include refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, water heaters, televisions and air conditioners”.
“The National Mandatory Efficiency Performance Standards for refrigerators and freezers were introduced in Australia in 1999 and revised in 2005. This set of standards removes appliances from sale that do not meet minimum benchmarks of energy efficiency. Retrospective analysis in 2006 estimated that these policies saved more than 3000 gigawatt-hours of energy by 2005, savings that were 34 % higher than was forecast in the original Regulatory Impact Statements. [..]the Minimum Energy Performance Standards scheme for appliances should focus on removing poorly performing products with considerable energy consumption and significant variation in performance, without eliminating features that consumers value.”
CHAPTER 18: THE INOVATION CHALLENGE
“A variety of new technologies and practices are potential contributors to Australia’s mitigation task. They include: • energy efficiency—electrical equipment, fixed appliances, and building materials and design • electricity generation—geothermal (hot rocks), improved generation efficiency (e.g. coal drying), and solar (photovoltaic and thermal) • transport—lower-emissions vehicles, second- and third-generation biofuels (including from mallee and algae) and biomass, and electric cars • agriculture and forestry—anti-methanogen technologies for livestock producers, altered savanna management, and nitrification inhibitors • sequestration—soil sequestration (biochar and mallee), geosequestration and algal sequestration.”
“Commercial agriculture in Australia often requires imported agricultural technologies to be adapted to Australian conditions, with high levels of government participation in research and the dissemination of information”.
“Reliable information about the impacts of climate change will be needed for the continued development of new adaptation technologies. Those areas that will play a direct and significant role in Australia’s adaptation challenge include: • agriculture—use of improved seasonal forecasts, heat tolerant crop cultivars, and different methods of crop and livestock management • the built environment—more resilient building materials, climate-appropriate building design and more efficient heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems • biodiversity—connectivity corridors and conservation methods. Some technologies, such as those that improve the thermal properties and energy efficiency of buildings, contribute to both the adaptation and mitigation efforts.”
“Research in adaptation technologies is critical for the agriculture sector as impacts will be increasingly severe in a future without mitigation.”
“Early research in agriculture is an area of strength in Australia. In 2006–07, 22 % of all government expenditure on research and development could be attributed to research in plant and animal production and primary products, while environmental management accounted for a further 18 %”.
“Various research organisations are already undertaking work on improving our technological responses to the effects of climate change, but better outcomes in the resilience of buildings, energy efficiency and water efficiency will require greater uptake of existing technologies rather than further research and development of new technologies.”
“There is a case for a specialist research body related to low-emission technology, to elevate, coordinate and target Australia’s effort in this field. Such a body could operate in a similar way to the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), overseeing a large expansion of effort in early research for low-emissions technologies, and operating independently to correct market failures.”
“Additional funds for early research in low-emissions technologies could come from the revenue from the auctioning of emissions permits. The allocation of a consistent level of annual permit revenue towards this public good research could form the major portion of funds to be allocated by the proposed research council.”
“Two important criteria should underlie any funding decisions in early research: (1) Is this area of research of national interest? (2) Is this an area of early research where Australia has a comparative advantage?”
“Australia should only fund early research aligned with its national interest. In the case of climate change mitigation, considerations should be based on both current circumstances and future projections, and could include:
• Australia’s emissions profile—The high emissions intensity of electricity generation and the high levels of emissions from agriculture are two examples of unusual characteristics of Australia’s emissions profile.
• Technological solutions particular to local conditions—Many technologies can be adopted from overseas and applied to the Australian context. The deployment of wind turbines from Europe and any future use of nuclear power are examples. However, some technologies will be subject to local factors, including geography, geology and climatic conditions.
• Sources of Australia’s economic prosperity—Sectors that are important sources of economic prosperity today or could become sources of economic advantage in the future have a broad strategic value for Australia.
• Technologies that build on Australia’s natural resources—Australia is in a unique position among developed countries of having an abundance of a wide range of natural resources that are relevant to low-cost transition to a lowcarbon economy (for example, solar, wind and geothermal sources of energy).”
“Australia should only undertake early research in areas where it has a comparative advantage.[..] Australia’s demonstrated strength in agricultural research is an example of an area of clear comparative advantage.”
“Rural research and development corporations and companies are a major vehicle for driving the development of new adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector.[..]Benefits include improvements in on-farm production; the development of new products for emerging markets; better management and use of water and natural resources; building and developing rural skills; building research and development capacity; and improving biosecurity.”
“Agricultural research in Australia is undertaken by public sector research organisations, notably the CSIRO, cooperative research centres, universities and agencies within the primary industries portfolios at federal and state levels. The demand for new technological solutions in the light of future climate change impacts will test the research capabilities of these institutions”.
“[..]it is important to create a longterm, stable and consistent strategic framework to promote investment in lowemissions technologies.[..] A clear, credible and consistent policy framework will provide investors with long-term signals, and incentives to deal with the challenge of technological lock-in, accelerating Australia’s technological transition to a low-carbon economy.The most important overarching policies for creating investor confidence and overcoming technological lock-in are the long-term emissions trajectory and the emissions trading scheme. Policy certainty and long-term investment signals can be backed up by strengthened international policy action that enhances domestic policy credibility”.
CHAPTER 22: TRANSFORMING RURAL LAND USE
Effects on global food supply and demand
“The melting of glaciers, leading to sealevel rise, and changes in river flow and monsoon rainfall, are likely to severely affect agricultural production, particularly in Asia. South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Australia have been identified as having agricultural sectors that are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.”
“Domestic food production in many developing countries will be at immediate risk of reductions in agricultural productivity due to crop failure, livestock loss, severe weather events and new patterns of pests and diseases. Climate change could disrupt ocean currents, which would have serious ramifications for the availability of fish, a major protein source.”
“Farmers in developing countries are less able to adapt to and effectively manage these risks due to the higher proportion of small-scale and subsistence farms, poorly developed infrastructure and lesser access to capital and technology.”
“These impacts, together with the considerable increases in population and food demand expected in developing countries, will lead to an increase in global food prices.”
“In Australia, some agricultural industry subsectors will be more vulnerable than others to climate change impacts (see Table 22.1). Enterprises already close to the edge of the ideal climatic range for their dominant agricultural activity will be particularly at risk.Changes to local climate and water availability will be key determinants of where agricultural production occurs and what is produced. Climate change is expected to reduce yields for many crops and place upward pressure on Australian food prices. Climate change impacts will also drive a range of adaptation measures.”
Biofules and energy
“If domestic production of bioenergy were to increase, there could be greater competition for land that is currently assigned in the model to food or forestry production.”
Livestock production
“In Australia, enteric fermentation emissions from livestock (mainly sheep and cattle) account for about 67 per cent of agricultural emissions.Cattle and sheep production also accounts for a significant proportion of emissions from agricultural soils, and beef production is responsible for some emissions from savanna fire and land clearing.”
“Breeding pattern manipulation, better location of watering points and greater use of products that promote growth can all increase productivity without increasing food consumption and resultant emissions. These activities are already widely practised.”
“The addition of monesin, dietary fats and lipids can reduce ruminant emissions by 20 to 40 %t. Nitrous oxide emissions from livestock can also be reduced through dietary changes. These options are technically feasible, but are generally not yet cost effective.”
“Over time, consumption patterns in Australian households are highly responsive to changes both in price and conditions of supply . Australian consumer preferences have changed over time, and will continue to change into the future.”
“By 2020 beef cattle and sheep numbers in the rangelands could be reduced by 7 million and 36 million respectively, and this would create the opportunity for an increase in kangaroo numbers from 34 million today to 240 million by 2020[..] meat production from 175 million kangaroos would be sufficient to replace the forgone lamb and beef meat production[..]”
“There are promising research avenues for reductions in agricultural emissions. Large-scale, and widely shared, public good research in this area is warranted.”
“The transaction costs of full inclusion of agriculture in an emissions trading scheme would be high. There are around 130 000 agricultural establishments in Australia, each with a diverse emissions profile. Inclusion of agriculture in an emissions trading scheme will involve a trade-off between accuracy and cost. Both will be significantly influenced by the threshold set for coverage and the point of obligation. There will be a large role for collective action among farmers, or private broking functions, to reduce the costs of individual farmers’ interaction with an emissions trading scheme.”
CHAPTER 23: TOWARDS A LOW-EMISSION ECONOMY
International food markets
“The world, and Australia, will need deep and flexible global food markets to manage the fluctuations and changes in supply conditions in response to climate change and its mitigation.Population growth, greater variability in climatic conditions, and the effects of climate change on agriculture will make Australia economically a food importer from time to time, perhaps even under normal conditions. The new global challenge of climate change adds to the good reasons for giving priority to resolving the old problem of distorted global agricultural markets.”
Global mitigation and ongoing prosperity
“The development in Australia of low-emissions technologies in the energy and agriculture sectors in particular will provide a basis for Australian businesses to play leading roles in innovation associated with the low-emissions transition in many countries, and especially in the Asia and the Pacific. The importance of export of related services from Australia would be enhanced by early establishment in Australia of efficient and extensive mechanisms in support of research, development and commercialisation of the new technologies.”
“Australia’s advantages in resource availability and sophisticated skills in critical areas of resource development, engineering and financial management are likely to ensure that we remain a strongly competitive suppler of commodities.”
Eligibility to apply for further funding would be subject to a rigorous review as well as a competitive selection process.
